Tracking A Heritage SP

The 2012 Heritage set included several unnumbered short print error cards.  I think its a hokey gimmick that doesn't truly mimic what happened with the 1963 set.  All the errors that Heritage copied were uncorrected errors in the '63 set and the '63 cards have no additional value added because of the error.


But that has never stopped Topps.





A few weeks ago I brought you the tale of my Darwin Barney SP.  I had been watching the market on the card for a couple weeks before I bought mine.  But since then, I've continued to track the card on ebay, trying to get a sense for just how many of these cards are out there.


Here's what I've discovered:


A total of 15 of the Barney variation cards have been sold on ebay since Heritage's release in mid-March.  The average price for the card is $88.95.  All fifteen cards have been offered by different sellers, and none of the big case-breakers sold any.  That tells me that these cards have to be fairly rare.


As much as possible, I've also tried to identify the buyer. You can still do that, but its a back-door way.  You have to check the feedback left for the seller.  There you can see the buyer's full ID.  I've found the IDs of eleven of the fifteen buyers; four didn't leave any feedback.  I want the buyer's ID so I can see if they re-listed a card.  That keeps me from counting a card twice.  So far, none of the buyer IDs have shown up as a seller.  I bet these are being grabbed by collectors like me, not flippers.


The market has dried up, too.  The last two were sold on May 6, and interestingly, were both bought by the same person.  Since that time, not a single card has been available.


If fifteen cards have been sold on ebay, I wonder how many were actually made?  What percentage of the cards do you think end up on ebay?  Half? Two thirds?  And how many are still sitting in a pack, waiting to be opened?  How many cards were opened, but the buyer didn't realized the value of the card because of a missing number and letter?


For arguments sake, let's say that there are 30 of these cards. Is a price of $90 for a /30 card a fair price?  It seems high to me.


So many questions, so few answers.


If you're curious, here are the sales of the fifteen cards

Date	Seller	Price
3/17/2012	Mnowo21	$122.50
3/18/2012	Jsetbuilder	$117.89
3/20/2012	Scottiff0	$99.99
3/28/2012	Cmcjr99	$72.99
3/31/2012	Fyffee88	$99.99
4/2/2012	Cardiac148	$67.76
4/3/2012	Koolouf	$90.00
4/7/2012	Milothrower	$76.76
4/10/2012	Janstolte	$74.57
4/25/2012	fanatics_addoct	$60.00
4/26/2012	theeboz	$99.99
4/26/2012	poe5	$79.99
4/29/2012	antmcc911	$73.00
5/6/2012	m001380	$99.99
5/6/2012	allstarsportsgr	$98.77