On February 9 I had a post on the Darwin Barney Heritage No Position card and the gist of my post was that the market had dried up. No new cards had been on ebay since November.
So of course, later that exact same day, not one, but two were listed! I watched both auctions, interested to find out what they would go for. Either they would go for crazy high prices, since it had been so long since one was listed, or else they would go for bargain prices since most have forgotten about them.
The final sale prices: $39.99 and $59.00---well below the average sale price of $101.14. These sales have knocked the average price under $100, down to $97.70.
These two were the 29th and 30th sold on ebay. All have been sold by different sellers and not one has been resold by a buyer. It's got to be collectors that are buying them, not flippers.
With 30 being sold on ebay alone, I think it's safe to say that these aren't as short-printed as Topps would like you to believe.
Compare the sales of this card with some cards with a known print run and you'll see why...
The 2013 Topps set has some colored border parallels that are numbered.
The pink cards are numbered to 25 and only two of Darwin Barney's #299 have shown up on ebay so far in the four weeks that the cards have been released. 2/25 = 8% (as an aside...if you search "Topps 2013 Barney pink" you'll only find one sale...the other was mistakenly listed as "2012" instead of "2013" and it was sold for a very reasonable price.....to me!!)
The black cards are numbered to 60 and five of the Barneys have been sold on ebay, which is 8.3% of the cards.
Now let's apply the 8% to the first four weeks of the Heritage card, in which nine were sold. A little math work tells me that there would be 112 of the Barney no position cards (8% of 112 = 8.96).
Would it be safe to say that there are over 100 of these cards out there somewhere?
Would it be safe to say that if you're paying $97.70 for one of 100 that you're overpaying?