Monday, November 1, 2021

Beating the Game 3 Odds

 


This tweet was posted over the weekend.  Win game three and you have a 7 out of 10 chance of winning the series.  Those are pretty good odds.  We'll see if that works out for the Braves.

I started thinking about the 2016 Cubs. Were they good or lucky, because they beat those odds in both of their seven game series.

They lost game 3 to the Dodgers in the NLCS.  The loss was their second consecutive by shutout.  Then the offense woke up and they scored 23 runs over the next three games, winning all three and taking the series 3-2

Game 3 of the World Series was a loss, too.  They dropped the fourth game before taking the next three and the series.

I'm not a mathematician so I don't know how to figure the number, but I'd have to say that there is a pretty low probability of being successful at something twice in a row when the odds say you'll fail 69% of the time.

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